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Last
updated 5/25/2004
The
following is a group of concepts that I find valuable. I have adopted
them, adapted them for my own purposes and generally put them to
use (or are attempting to put them to use) in my life. It's a roadmap
of useful notions, if you will, but in no particular order. These
concepts color the way that I think about the world, and they inform
decisions I make. In turn, they are also a reflection of my already-existing
personal world-view, submitted for your approval. The ideas here
change quite frequently, because, you know, we live and learn. I'm
sure you have your own set, which I encourage you to share
and enjoy like good Chinese take-away.
Chaos
Organization
can occur from seemingly random events; order becomes evident
within what appears to be disorder (see: fractal geometry). Slight
variations in initial conditions may result in catastrophically
different end results.
Complexity
The
cause and effect relationship is typically complex rather than
linear, if it even exists at all. Attempting to derive a logical
chain of consequence between what appears to be a "cause"
and what appears to be an "effect" may in reality generate
explanations for phenomena that appear to be reasonable on the
surface but are in fact completely wrong.
Process,
Feedback, Disequilibrium
Breaks
in continuity are places where opportunities reside.
Law
of Large Numbers
In
a truly large statistical population, even the most improbable
things are very likely to occur. For me, this idea tends to explain
away a number of supernatural phenomena. The simple way to think of
it: Someone has to win the lottery, but it's almost assuredly not
going to be you.
Principle
of Parsimony
Plurality
should not be posited without necessity; i.e., the simpler the
explanation, the better. Also known as "Occam's Razor,"
from William of Occam, a Franciscan Monk and Medieval Philosopher.
Smallest
Effective Difference
One
should generally make visual or conceptual movements as minimal
as possible, but absolutely clear so that there is a just noticeable
difference (adapted from Edwarde Tufte).
Fecundity
Although
economy and efficiency can be virtues, excess and redundancy
also have significant value. A tree does not produce
one single fruit; it produces hundreds. The natural world is abundant
in its creative efforts, we should be as well. For me, this translates
to: "Do creative things for no immediately apparent reason,"
and "Take extra copies with you," and "Develop
many more ideas than you need," etc.
Path
of Least Resistance
There
is much to be learned about life from gravity. Note the way water
flows; note the way forces of weight reach the ground through
structure (trees, buildings, bodies). Many analogs to this exist
in humans' social and economic behavior.
Game Theory
Behavioral
agents (for example, people) do not operate in a vacuum when maximizing
their utility. The outcomes of their decisions, and many times
the decisions themselves, are influenced by the behavior of the
other "players" of the game. Players do not always act
rationally--i.e., they do not always attempt to maximize their
utility. Chaotic thinking can help one deal with this.
Creative
Destruction
In
capitalist societies, change mutates from within. It grows to
destroy the old and to create new methods, products, ideas and
ways of living. This term was introduced by economist Joseph Schumpeter
in "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy."
Tipping
Point
The
concept that small changes (i.e., positive feedback) will have
little or no effect on a system until a critical mass is reached.
Then a further small change "tips" the system and a
large effect is observed. As Malcolm Gladwell puts it, "Small
things add up to make a big difference." Thinking about this
from the chaos point of view, a "tipping point" might
also be thought of as a "bifurcation."
Invisible
Hand
When
the individual pursues his or her well being, the greater good
tends to result (Adam Smith). Although this concept, in my opinion,
rests on a shaky foundation, I think it has a tendency to hold true.
The
Future Can Be Predicted
The
important thing to understand is that with probability near 1,
predictions of the future will be wrong. So the wise forecaster
will try to estimate just how wrong by analyzing contingencies.
It also helps to keep in mind these six biases (adapted from Spyros
G. Makridakis):
-
Conservatism: Failure to change (or changing slowly) one's own
mind in light of new information/evidence.
- Recency:
The most recent events dominate those in the less recent past,
which are downgraded or ignored.
- Anchoring:
Predictions of the future are unduly influenced by initial information,
which is given more weight than it deserves.
- Illusory
correlations: Belief that patterns are evident and/or that two
variables are causally related when they are not.
- Optimism,
wishful thinking: People's preferences for future outcomes affect
their predictions of such outcomes.
- Underestimating
uncertainty: Excessive optimism, illusory correlation, and the
need to reduce anxiety result in underestimating the uncertainty
of future events.
Emotional
Resonance
Does
what you're doing speak to your soul? Does it speak deeply to
others? When something has emotional resonance, sometimes people
say it has "heart."
Real
Human Needs
Everything
of value in this world serves to meet some real human need. Anything
created that does not meet a real human need will eventually go
away.
Genuine
Progress
Achievement
in any field must not be measured by any single set of criteria.
For example, economic profit must also be measured in environmental
and social terms. Any "progress" that causes severe
externalities may be a zero-sum game or worse. Measuring genuine
progress can also be called "internalizing externalities."
Compassion for others is naturally embedded in this concept.
Synchronicity
Coincidence
of events that seem to be meaningfully related, according to Carl
Jung. Doors open, doors close, sometimes in tandem (especially
with the Law of Large Numbers in effect)--be observant enough
to make opportunism make sense.
Integrity;
Honesty; Accountability
These
need no explanation.
Measure
Twice, Cut Once
I.e.,
think before you speak.
Rattle
the Cage
Force
yourself to be exposed to new ideas, new situations on a regular
basis. Without change, the true self never surfaces.
Natural
Geometry
The
Golden Mean (A:B | B:A+B) and phi (0.618034); the Fibonacci Series
(0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, ...); the Natural Constant (e=2.718282);
Pi (3.141592)--why do they exist? What does their existence tell
us about existence?
Government
The
burden of government, which history has shown to be necessary,
should be placed on those best able to pay. When a government
becomes irrelevant to the needs, interests and lifestyles of its
citizens, it should be removed and replaced.
Enterprise
Bankers,
lawyers, accountants and other service professionals are the instruments
of individual enterprise and initiative. In other words, their
services are a "means," not an "end." In case you haven't
guessed it yet, this is my "humble the lawyers" spiel.
Human
Extensions
Paraphrased
from the writings of Edward T. Hall: Man is distinguished from
the other animals by virtue of the fact that he has elaborated
extensions of his organism. By developing his extensions, man
has been able to improve or specialize various functions. The
computer is an extension of part of the brain, the telephone extends
the voice, the wheel extends the legs and feet. Language extends
experience in time and space while writing extends language. …
Man and his extensions constitute one interrelated system. It
is a mistake of the greatest magnitude to act as though man were
one thing and his house or his cities, his technology or his language
were something else. … The danger: When an organ or process
is extended, evolution speeds up at such a rate that it is possible
for the extension to take over.
The
Bottom of the Bowl
The
stuff at the bottom of the bowl is the tastiest. The most interesting
discussions take place near the end of the meeting, or afterward.
You only find the good stuff when you dig--and wait.
Always
Stop or Take the Side Road
A
roadtrip is worthless unless you make several (preferably unplanned)
stops. Side roads are more conducive to random stops than highways.
If you're going to take the journey, what fun is it if you only
have highways to remember?
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